If I had an hour to solve a problem I’d spend 55 minutes thinking about the problem and 5 minutes thinking about solutions.
f you’ve been in marketing for more than ﬁve years, you can skim this chapter pretty quickly.
Consider it a gentle reminder of all you hold dear.
If you are a data scientist working with marketing people,
then you must read this chapter.
Rohit Nagraj Rudrapatna, a senior data scientist at Blueocean Market Intelligence, understands the need.
Blueocean Market Intelligence的高级数据科学家Rohit Nagraj Rudrapatna了解这一需求。
“The biggest challenge for the data scientist is to speak the language of the marketing department,” he says.
“We may face a lot of data challenges but the marketing team and the analytics team work in silos.
One does not understand the other’s language and that’s a big communication gap.
If there’s a way these two departments can make a bridge to speak the other language, I think that’s where synergies can come into play.”
Understanding the problem is crucial in an era when new tech- nologies are so often brought in because they are the shiny, new object.
A cool new tool is fun and interesting, but it cannot be useful
until we understand what we’re trying to accomplish in using it.
(See Figure 3.1.)
When television was shiny and new, most of the television ads featured a live performer standing in front of a microphone, reading copy from a radio ad—new tool, old habits.
When the World Wide Web was opened for commercial use, most of the websites were non- interactive brochureware and only allowed people to click from one page to the next.
With big data and artiﬁcial intelligence, the conversation most often goes like this:
What have you got?
What do you want?
What can it do?
What do you need it to do?
Can it solve my problems?
What are your problems?
With no understanding of the technology, the marketing side of the house has a tough time ﬁguring out how to apply a new capability.
With no clear description of the problem the marketing department is trying to solve, the technologists can only shrug their shoulders.
There is a “cold start” problem for any technology, but especially for AI that requires some sort of data to chew on.
If you grow up in the marketing world, you pick up a lot of rules of thumb.
You know, for instance, that if you use a picture of a person, you want that person facing into the page.
If they’re on the left side, you want them facing to the right.
If they’re on the right side, you want them facing to the left.
You know this after years of experience.
But a machine learning process doesn’t have years of experience; it just has raw data and it has to learn on its own, each time.
Among other marketing issues, Matt Gershoff, co-founder at Conductrics, is trying to help clients show the right ad to the right per- son at the right time.
“We’re going to use a certain set of technologies to achieve that,” says Gershoff.
“We don’t have data or information yet so we’re going to use experimentation.
Let’s say we’re going to try out a new offer or a new experience for our customers that we haven’t presented before, so we don’t really know, a priori, what the efﬁcacy is going to be.
So, we need to start collecting data on it.”
So which data should we collect?
That depends, what problem are you trying to solve?
What sorts of problems can I solve with AI?
That depends on what data you have.
It’s far more important that the data scientist understand the problem than the marketer understand the technology—at least at ﬁrst.
数据科学家理解营销问题比营销人员了解技术要重要得多 – 至少在第一次合作的时候。
Once the technology is better understood by the business side, real strides can be made as the marketing professional gets a feel for the power of the tools.
The machine can do what it’s told, but it needs to be told.
To best understand the marketing problem, you have to go back to its roots to see how it developed.
In the beginning, there were goats and cows.
I have some goats; you have some cows.
I’d like one of your cows, so I offer you two of my goats in exchange.
You scoff and tell me my goats are scrawny and old and you would need ﬁve healthy goats to even consider a trade.
I explain that my goats come from the highest rated farm and I have tended them personally from birth.
I explain the feed they eat, the conditions they live in, and the awards they have won.
I explain that they are young, healthy, and in demand.
In addition, one of my goats is a buckling and the other is a doeling, which means they can breed.
After half an hour of conversation, we come to an agreement.
You’ll take three goats and I’ll take one of your best cows.
We have settled on a fair deal and we now both have something we did not have before: a relationship.
And then came money, which made things much easier.
Rather than trading two dozen eggs for a bucket of milk that could then be turned into cheese and traded for a horse’s halter, the eggs could be sold for coins that could be used to trade for the halter.
This is pretty much the deﬁnition of civilization.
Rather than having to hunt or gather our own food, we could count on the famer and the hunter to do that work while the rest of us built ovens, baked bread, and made pots.
People were able to venture farther aﬁeld and found new villages hundreds of miles away.
Those villages were visited by peddlers in horse-drawn wagons who called on the town’s general store (Figure 3.2).
The proprietor of the general store knew you on sight as you were in the store every week.
Besides buying goods, the store was the most important source of local news.
He had reason to ask about your family and your health.
He knew how much ﬂour and sugar you usually bought and how much more you were going to need because your cousins were coming to visit and they had teenage boys.
The owner would pick and choose what to put on his shelves based on his knowledge of his fellow residents.
Figure 3.2 General store interior, Moundville, Alabama, 1936
You were going to need more warm cloth for a new coat because the last two times you came in, the one you were wearing was getting tattered.
Your neighbor had been asking at the bar the other night if your mutual friend could return that wheelbarrow he borrowed two weeks ago.
The miller’s son was marrying the baker’s daugh- ter and would need some things to set up a new household.
Retail was personal.
That all ended during the Industrial Revolution with the advent of mass production, mass transportation, and mass communication.
Once trains could move goods across vast distances in days, manu- facturers could produce more than was needed locally.
The Industrial Revolution showed up right on time and factories were born.
Once goods could be sold at a distance, there was a need to cre- ate demand.
The general store couldn’t stock one of everything, but if Mrs. Smith asked for a particular manufacturer’s sewing machine, one would be placed on order.
And then came direct mail (Figure 3.3).
A master at slogans and catchy phrases, Richard Sears illustrated the cover of his 1894 catalog declaring it the “Book of Bargains:
A Money Saver for Everyone,” and the “Cheapest Supply House on Earth,” claiming that “Our trade reaches around the World.”
Sears also knew the importance of keeping customers, boldly stating that
“We Can’t Afford to Lose a Customer.”
He proudly included testimonials from satisﬁed customers and made every effort to assure the reader that Sears had the lowest prices and best values.
This catalog expanded from watches and jewelry, offering merchandise such as sewing machines, sporting goods, musical instruments, saddles, ﬁrearms, buggies, bicycles, baby carriages, and men’s and children’s clothing.
The 1895 catalog added eyeglasses, including a self-test for “old sight, near sight and astigmatism.”
At this time Sears wrote nearly every line appearing in the catalogs drawing upon his personal experience using language and expressions that appealed to his target customers.
History of the Sears Catalog1
Figure 3.3 Sears Catalog, 1909.
Direct mail was followed by radio ads, roadside billboards, and television, and we no longer knew our customers by name, only by ZIP code.
THE FOUR Ps
Product, price, promotion, and placement are the old workhorses of the marketing world.
Does the product live up to the promise?
Is it really the best value?
The highest status?
The longest lasting?
Is the quality so high that customers are happy to buy it again and again?
Does the image it represents actually make the buyer feel stronger, hipper, smarter?
Is your product priced for the audience you’re chasing?
Think Rolex versus Swatch, Apple versus Acer, or Rolls Royce versus Kia.
Being the least expensive may not be the best way to win hearts and minds.
Being too expensive for all but a few might not target a wide enough marketing to stay in business.
Does it ever go on sale?
This used to just be about advertising, but we’re about to see that there are an inordinate number of ways to get your message into the minds of potential buyers.
Promotion is not just about plastering your name all over the world; its success also depends on timing.
Getting the right message to the right person at the right time is a challenge.
Is the product available through the right channels?
How many sales do you forgo if your item is not offered through Amazon?
What is the impact of people not being able to call and order your service on the weekend?
What is the difference between being able to buy your item at the grocery store as opposed to a brand-name storefront?
That’s just the start.
Marketing professionals worry about a great many more things than these four Ps.
WHAT KEEPS A MARKETING PROFESSIONAL AWAKE?
Sending a message out into the universe and tracking its impact requires keeping tabs on a multitude of stages.
Did our message actually go out?
Our television ad was slated to air at 7:45 P.M. on Tuesday in 14 DMAs (designated market areas).
我们的电视广告定于周二下午7:45在14个DMP播出（designated market areas,指定的市场区域）。
When did it actually air?
Should we have placed it on the radio as well?
The New York Times web home page?
Was our message actually displayed?
Maybe it got sent, but was it received?
On what sort of device?
Our banner ad was supposed to be served to ﬁve million people.
Did it show up “below the fold” and nobody actually saw it?
Was it merely recorded by a DVR and not really seen by a human?
Did our message have any impact at all?
Did it tip the scale of whether people claimed to have heard of our brand or product?
Did the people who were intended to see our mes- sage, and who actually saw it, remember anything about it?
Did they remember that our company stands for value/ luxury/style/security/safety?
Did they change their mind about our industry, company, product?
Did they click/call/swipe/retweet/ask their doctor if our pill is right for them?
How quickly did they respond?
It was great that thousands of people responded, but were they the right people?
Did we reach qualiﬁed buyers?
Are they ready (culturally prepared), willing (convinced this purchase is a good idea), and able (are allowed to buy [age]), and can they afford to buy our product?
Did people reach out for even more information?
Return to our website?
Go back into the store?
Go for a test drive?
Did anybody actually give us money in exchange for our goods or services?
How did they buy?
Over the phone?
In the store?
On their mobile device?
Did the sales of our products or services instigated through those promotional methods over those channels result in positive income?
Did we reach and acquire customers who purchased from our company again?
Customer lifetime value.
Did the customers we acquired grow more or less proﬁtable over time?
Did they clog our customer service lines?
Demand that we return their money?
Were they proﬁtable in the long run?
Did customers review our goods or services in a pos- itive light?
Were they a good reference?
Did they go out of their way to tell their friends and neighbors about their positive experience?
Did they tweet with our hashtag?
Did any of their friends and neighbors show interest, become engaged, purchase, and/or become an advocate?
S O L V I N G T H E M A R K E T I N G P R O B L E M 111
Getting the right message to the right person at the right time means knowing what that speciﬁc person might need or want to know at that speciﬁc moment.
THE CUSTOMER JOURNEY
To understand what potential customers might be thinking at any given point in time, marketers came up with the idea of the customer journey.
The prospect goes from ignorance to interest to purchase with as many steps in between as a marketer’s imagination allows.
The fun part is trying to match the functional side of marketing to the reality
of “the journey.”
It’s common to assume that you attract people’s attention on tele- vision (Super Bowl ad, anyone?), spur them along with online ads, encourage them through social media, and then reel them in with an e-mail offer.
While there’s nothing inherently wrong in this approach, it’s a bit like assuming that you know what a salmon is thinking just before it jumps up the waterfall and becomes lunch for a grizzly.
Con- jecture and inference have been our best tools for generations, along with years of experience.
We have to admit that we really can’t know.
Fortunately, it’s worth the effort to use math on the problem.
WE WILL NEVER REALLY KNOW
The Internet Oldtimers Foundation was founded in the late 1990s for people who wanted to discuss online advertising.
the Internet Oldtier Foundation成立于20世纪90年代末，面向那些想要讨论在线广告的人。
It’s a “private, highly conﬁdential and relaxed virtual space on industry-related topics with the goal of constantly effecting positive changes in the industry.”
Twenty years later, one member posted a question that every mar- keting person has faced:
How do you explain marketing to somebody with no background in marketing?
How do you outline the processes of brand and product strategy, research, creative, paid media, earned media, PR, search, reporting, analytics, and ﬁnally, attribution?
Based on his experience in a career in advertising starting in the mid-1980s, Tom Cunniff took a stab at answering this question.
Actually, everyone knows something about marketing
but… pretty much everyone is wrong.
What they know is based on Bewitched and Mad Men and old Super Bowl ads.
Hardly any of that has anything to do with today or the future.
Personally, I’d skip all the jargon and just tell a story along these lines.
Imagine you want to buy a camera.
How do you decide which one to buy?
If it’s just about price and you want a decent point-and- shoot one, you might just go to Amazon and see what they’ve got.
If you’re more serious, you’d Google for blogs and reviews, and look at reviews from people who’ve actually bought the brands you’re looking at.
You’d probably go ask friends on Facebook, especially the ones who talk about photography and post good pictures.
Along the way, algorithms learn that you’re looking for a camera and start serving you lots of ads.
Finally, you’d decide which camera to buy.
Then I would explain:
What I just described is what people call a “customer journey.”
People today mostly ﬁnd out about stuff through search engines—including Amazon—and social media.
今天的人们大多通过搜索引擎去找内容 – 包括亚马逊和社交媒体。
This is the stuff that we call SEO/SEM (Search Engine Optimization/Search Engine Marketing), inﬂuencer marketing (people who are popular in social media), etc., which is why SEO and SEM are important, and why having a strong product or service with good reviews is so important.
这些我们称之为SEO / SEM（搜索引擎优化/搜索引擎管理），影响力营销（在社交媒体中受欢迎的人）等等，这就是为什么SEO和SEM很重要的原因，以及为什么拥有强大的产品或者服务并且评价良好，非常重要。
And that is why research, product strategy and brand strategy are so important.
Product strategy is all about what we make and how well it ﬁts consumer needs.
Good research helps us understand what consumers say they need, but we have to remember that people often don’t know what they need until after you show it to them
Brand strategy is all about how we talk about our product or service, what playing ﬁeld we deﬁne for
ourselves, and how we act.
This also helps inform Brand Experience, which is the total way consumers experience us.
What about advertising?
Today most of it is bought on exchanges—it’s bought and sold like stock.
今天大多数广告是在广告交易平台买的 – 它像股票一样买卖。
Basically you’re betting on which prospect is most likely to become a paying customer.
It’s a lot of math and science and it’s actually incredibly exciting.
What about creative?
When do I get to meet Don Draper?
Well… there’s still a role for big splashy TV commercials, but it’s far less important than it used to be.
The most important words about advertising today are “relevance, viewability, and data.”
“Creative” still matters, but not as much as the other stuff.
You’ll hear us talk a lot about analytics and attribution.
Basically, we’re doing two things.
First, trying to ﬁgure out what happened—how did people hear about us, what made them consider us, what made them decide to buy?
首先，试图弄清楚发生了什么 – 人们如何看待我们，是什么让他们考虑选我们，是什么让他们决定购买？
Second, we’re trying to ﬁgure out the relative inﬂuence of all the stuff we did.
Everything makes a contribution, but we’ll want to optimize our budget by spending the most on the stuff that works best.
What is the marketing problem we’re trying to solve?
Putting the right message in front of the right person at the right time in the right context on the right device and ﬁguring out whether any of the work we did had an impact on the buying decision.
Or would it have been better if the above had happened in a dif- ferent sequence?
What if our big, splashy ad on television had been ignored because of that big news story about the earthquake?
Throw in magazine ads, direct mail, posters, e-mail marketing, event marketing, display ads on the Web, public relations, sales presenta- tion, social media conversations, overheard conversations in the coffee shop, billboards, point-of-sale displays, tradeshows, call center inter- actions, webinars, focus groups, surveys, blog posts, search marketing, and talking to your neighbor over the backyard fence, and you’re still not done.
You still need to account for the Blue Toyota Syndrome.
That’s what Dave Smith of Mediasmith calls that moment when you buy a blue Toyota and suddenly start seeing them everywhere.
At ﬁrst, you even honk and wave.
“Once you decide you are ‘in market,’ your own radar and ﬁlters kick in and you notice a lot more information about that item or category and start consuming content and advertising dif- ferently.
Including stuff you come across serendipitously in traditional media.
This makes category advertising much more effective if they reach you.”
But reaching people has turned into a fractured fairytale.
Figuring out which communications channels are best to reach which types of people at which point in the buying cycle requires strict attention and robust rigor.
This is especially true given the number of ways we can reach out and touch someone.
The explosive growth in the number of touchpoints is unnerving.
HOW DO I CONNECT?
LET ME COUNT THE WAYS
To truly appreciate the marketing problem, I encourage you to visit MullenLowe U.S.’s New Marketing Ecosystem poster2 and take a good hard look.
(See Figure 3.4.)
MullenLowe starts in the center with the customer who could be a Suspect (you think she might like your offer), a Prospect (she has expressed an interest), a Customer (he bought something), an Advocate (he says nice things about you), or an Inﬂuencer (people listen to her).
From there, the poster branches out into a daunting variety of communication channels that branch off into a dizzying number of branches.
This is just the two top tiers:
Audio/Video Product Placement Movie
Digital Television Networks Satellite Radio
Network Television Satellite Television HD Radio
网络电视 卫星电视 高清广播
Cable Online Radio Podcasts
有线 在线广播 播客
Financial & Investor Relations Media Relations
Events, Sponsorships & Promotions Speaking & Executive Visibility Internal Communications
活动，赞助和促销 演讲和行政透明度 内部沟通
New Media Word of Mouth
Corporate & Social Responsibility
E-commerce Gaming Search
电子商务 游戏 搜索
Online Advertising Videocast Websites
在线广告 视频 广播 网站
Social Networking Blogs
Direct Mail Radio Telemarketing Print
直邮 电台 电话销售 印刷品
Mobile Devices Handheld Game Console Phone/PDA
移动设备 掌上游戏机 电话/ PDA
Out of Home
Traditional Billboards Nontraditional Static Spectaculars Guerilla
传统广告牌 非传统的平面广告 霓虹灯广告 游击营销
Print Magazines Trade Magazines Newspapers
<Bold>印刷广告</Bold> 杂志 商业杂志 报纸
Alternative Delivery Customer Publishing
Experiential Tour Attractions Organizations Arts Festivals/Fairs Cause Marketing Sports
体验营销 旅游景点 组织 艺术 节日/展览会 公益营销 体育
In an ideal world we’ll have ﬁgured out how to collect clean, accu- rate data about each individual we touch in each of those settings.
We’ll also have ﬁgured out how to pick winning Lottery numbers.
WHY DO I CONNECT?
Brands were born to distinguish one owner’s cattle from another.
Once you have convinced me that your cows are of the ﬁnest parentage, are
Figure 3.5 Bronze branding-stamp: aegis of Sekhmet (British Museum)
well looked after, well fed, and have won many awards, I can save a lot of time by simply looking for your brand on their hide to assure myself that I’m getting the expected quality.
While mostly associated with the Old West, branding irons have been traced back to 1543–1292 B.C., in the Eighteenth Egyptian Dynasty.
(See Figure 3.5.)
This shorthand spread to more and more products as the mak- ers and the buyers became separated by miles.
Instead of buying a baguette from Fred the Baker down the street, we bought Wonder Bread.
我们买了Wonder Bread牌面包，而不是从街上的Fred the Baker。
Instead of going to a random restaurant in that strange city and taking our chances, we could go to McDonald’s and, lovin’ it or not, could count on the quality of the food and service to be the same as every other McDonald’s we’d ever visited.
Name recognition is the opening salvo in this ﬁght for mind-space.
Next comes trait recognition.
Companies spend big to get you to con- nect their name and/or logo with a speciﬁc characteristic.
Cutting-edge design FedEx:
If they can get you to remember their name and understand what they stand for, the next step is to get you to relate to them, to become part
of the tribe.
You know the brand Rolls Royce and what it stands for.
You even love the product.
But you have no intention of buying one.
You are not the target audience.
Ultimately, you want people to associate themselves with the image you are projecting and delivering.
“I am an electric car person” or “I am a pickup truck person” or “I am a minivan person.”
Branding is more than simply telling people what they should think of you.
A company’s brand is a combination of the story it tells and the experience people have.
If you say you’re the low-price leader and you’re not, your brand suffers.
If you promise that a customer’s package will absolutely, positively be there overnight and it’s not, your brand is tarnished.
Marketing consultant and author Kristin Zhivago always reminds us, “Your brand is the promises you keep.”
Your brand is in the eye of the beholder.
So how do we know if the money and effort we spend is paying off?